Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 New York 20,498
2 New Jersey 19,565
3 Rhode Island 15,908
4 Massachusetts 15,835
5 District of Columbia 14,686
6 Connecticut 13,062
7 Louisiana 12,968
8 Delaware 11,820
9 Arizona 11,561
10 Illinois 11,485
11 Maryland 11,330
12 Nebraska 9,990
13 Iowa 9,387
14 Mississippi 9,374
15 Alabama 7,946
16 South Dakota 7,715
17 Georgia 7,496
18 Virginia 7,404
19 Florida 7,402
20 South Carolina 7,364
21 Pennsylvania 7,175
22 Michigan 7,137
23 Utah 7,131
24 Arkansas 7,023
25 Indiana 6,998
26 Minnesota 6,516
27 Tennessee 6,495
28 North Carolina 6,370
29 Nevada 6,217
30 California 6,068
31 Texas 6,029
32 New Mexico 5,854
33 Colorado 5,732
34 Wisconsin 5,548
35 Kansas 5,197
36 North Dakota 4,755
37 Washington 4,630
38 Ohio 4,522
39 New Hampshire 4,267
40 Missouri 3,681
41 Kentucky 3,606
42 Idaho 3,569
43 Oklahoma 3,566
44 Wyoming 2,615
45 Maine 2,450
46 Puerto Rico 2,359
47 Oregon 2,118
48 Vermont 1,939
49 West Virginia 1,662
50 Alaska 1,604
51 Montana 950
52 Hawaii 642

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Arizona 466
2 South Carolina 297
3 Louisiana 282
4 Florida 278
5 Texas 257
6 Alabama 239
7 Mississippi 224
8 Tennessee 215
9 Georgia 213
10 Nevada 212
11 California 192
12 Utah 177
13 Idaho 155
14 Arkansas 152
15 North Carolina 147
16 Kansas 128
17 Iowa 116
18 Oklahoma 98
19 Delaware 97
20 Wisconsin 90
21 Washington 83
22 New Mexico 74
23 Nebraska 73
24 Missouri 72
25 Ohio 72
26 Minnesota 69
27 Illinois 63
28 Maryland 62
29 Rhode Island 60
30 Virginia 57
31 District of Columbia 55
32 Wyoming 55
33 Pennsylvania 54
34 South Dakota 54
35 North Dakota 52
36 Alaska 51
37 Indiana 51
38 Kentucky 47
39 Montana 47
40 Oregon 46
41 Colorado 41
42 Michigan 41
43 Puerto Rico 36
44 New Jersey 27
45 West Virginia 27
46 Connecticut 25
47 Maine 25
48 New York 25
49 Massachusetts 23
50 New Hampshire 13
51 Hawaii 6
52 Vermont 4

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,697
2 New York 1,634
3 Connecticut 1,212
4 Massachusetts 1,172
5 Rhode Island 902
6 District of Columbia 783
7 Louisiana 696
8 Michigan 621
9 Illinois 565
10 Maryland 530
11 Pennsylvania 523
12 Delaware 522
13 Indiana 393
14 Mississippi 363
15 Colorado 294
16 New Hampshire 274
17 Minnesota 262
18 Georgia 261
19 Ohio 246
20 New Mexico 238
21 Arizona 237
22 Iowa 227
23 Virginia 209
24 Alabama 198
25 Washington 175
26 Missouri 170
27 Nevada 166
28 Florida 165
29 California 156
30 South Carolina 148
31 Nebraska 145
32 Wisconsin 136
33 Kentucky 133
34 North Carolina 132
35 North Dakota 116
36 South Dakota 105
37 Oklahoma 98
38 Kansas 96
39 Arkansas 91
40 Vermont 89
41 Tennessee 88
42 Texas 86
43 Maine 78
44 Utah 53
45 Idaho 51
46 West Virginia 51
47 Oregon 49
48 Puerto Rico 47
49 Wyoming 34
50 Montana 20
51 Alaska 16
52 Hawaii 12

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 New York 11
2 Rhode Island 9
3 Arizona 6
4 Mississippi 4
5 Alabama 3
6 New Jersey 3
7 South Carolina 3
8 Florida 2
9 Louisiana 2
10 Maryland 2
11 Virginia 2
12 Arkansas 1
13 California 1
14 Colorado 1
15 District of Columbia 1
16 Georgia 1
17 Illinois 1
18 Indiana 1
19 Iowa 1
20 Kentucky 1
21 Massachusetts 1
22 Michigan 1
23 Minnesota 1
24 Missouri 1
25 Nebraska 1
26 Nevada 1
27 New Hampshire 1
28 New Mexico 1
29 North Carolina 1
30 Ohio 1
31 Pennsylvania 1
32 Tennessee 1
33 Texas 1
34 Washington 1
35 Alaska 0
36 Connecticut 0
37 Delaware 0
38 Hawaii 0
39 Idaho 0
40 Kansas 0
41 Maine 0
42 Montana 0
43 North Dakota 0
44 Oklahoma 0
45 Oregon 0
46 Puerto Rico 0
47 South Dakota 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 West Virginia 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 131,957 1 99
Lake Tennessee 98,347 2 99
Dakota Nebraska 88,934 3 99
Buena Vista Iowa 86,595 4 99
Lee Arkansas 84,227 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 14,619 195 93
Richland South Carolina 8,736 476 84
Orange California 4,539 1034 67
York South Carolina 4,474 1048 66
Pierce Washington 3,235 1368 56

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 3,784 1 99
Randolph Georgia 3,688 2 99
Terrell Georgia 3,165 3 99
Early Georgia 3,042 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 2,619 5 99
Richland South Carolina 202 680 78
Davidson Tennessee 164 776 75
Pierce Washington 115 977 68
Orange California 109 1015 67
York South Carolina 43 1542 50

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons